Here today, gone tomorrow? Targeting conservation investment in the face of climate change
Keywords:
conservation investment, climate change, diversity, systematic reserve design, species distributions.Abstract
To optimize the use of scarce resources, it is imperative to target conservation investment wisely. We
discuss the impact assessment of potential climate-driven shifts in species distributions on the future
conservation utility of a present-day reserve design. We provide examples using breeding bird survey data
for 150 species in the eastern USA, and two predicted future species distributions models. Using present-day
distributions, this study systematically selects sets of units meeting a range of conser-vation targets; 10 to
100 occurrences of each species in the reserve network. Units provide coverage to 68 – 79% of bird species
in the two future scenarios. Underrepresented species fall into two principal groups, those associated with
northern tree species (Balsam fir Abies balsamea or Paper birch Betula papyrifera) and those linked to
temperature variables. Changes in the geography of conservation prio-rity are highlighted by a ‘conservation
priority surface’ and compared to existing protected areas. These techniques inform adaptive conservation
management strategies and encourage the geographic target-ing of long-term conservation investment.
